YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
9-9 | Road
83
WRIGHT STATE
RAIDERSWRST
11-7 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
RAIDERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
WRIGHT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Wright State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WRST -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WRST)
YSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
YSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
WRST By 1-7 points
0.3%
WRST By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
64
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Wright State
99
WRIGHT STATE
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
75
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Wright State
78
WRIGHT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raiders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raiders (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 15, 2026
YSU @ WRST
83 - 93
Dec 3, 2025
WRST @ YSU
68 - 69
Jan 30, 2025
WRST @ YSU
86 - 88
Dec 18, 2024
YSU @ WRST
80 - 70
Feb 1, 2024
YSU @ WRST
88 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+80.2% more
Wright State: 5.4
vs
Youngstown State: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+21.5% more
Wright State: 16.3
vs
Youngstown State: 13.4
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
Wright State: 14.2
vs
Youngstown State: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.9%
Wright State: 85.8%
vs
Youngstown State: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
64.0
83
WRST Score
99.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.6 / 30.7
56.0 / 44.0
Assists
16.3 / 13.4
10.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.4 / 3.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
53.6 / 42.5
53.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
85.8 / 70.9
86.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 37.2
38.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.1
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.3
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
WRST
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
WRST
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WRST
YSU
WRST
YSU
ML
37%
13-22
57%
17-13
63%
22-13
67%
20-10
ATS
46%
16-19
47%
14-16
63%
22-13
67%
20-10
TTL
63%
22-13
60%
18-12
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
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