NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
7-8 | Road
89
WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
11-6 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
TRIBE
100%
AGGIES
--
TRIBE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
NCAT By 1-7 points
27.2%
NCAT By 8-14 points
23.0%
W&M By 1-7 points
18.6%
W&M By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina A&T
57
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
William & Mary
52
WILLIAM & MARY
Simulated Score
North Carolina A&T
65
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
William & Mary
72
WILLIAM & MARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tribe
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tribe (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Tribe (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.0
Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim
u162.0
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
W&M @ NCAT
91 - 88
Jan 15, 2026
NCAT @ W&M
89 - 97
Jan 11, 2025
NCAT @ W&M
78 - 81
Mar 8, 2024
W&M @ NCAT
79 - 62
Jan 20, 2024
W&M @ NCAT
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.2% more
North Carolina A&T: 5.1
vs
William & Mary: 2.9
Rebounding (L5)
+20.6% more
North Carolina A&T: 42.6
vs
William & Mary: 33.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.4%
North Carolina A&T: 77.7%
vs
William & Mary: 70.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
North Carolina A&T: 31.2%
vs
William & Mary: 28.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score
57.0
89
W&M Score
52.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 31.2
56.0 / 44.0
Assists
14.4 / 14.4
28.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.1
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 42.5
58.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 77.7
71.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 42.6
25.0 / 30.0
Steals
10.6 / 4.6
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 11.7
10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
W&M
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
W&M
NCAT
W&M
NCAT
ML
55%
17-14
52%
14-13
61%
19-12
63%
17-10
ATS
63%
19-11-1
63%
17-10
61%
19-12
64%
18-10
TTL
61%
19-12
69%
18-8-1
100%
31-0
100%
28-0
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