NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
9-6 | Road
71
LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
13-3 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
FLAMES
100%
AGGIES
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIB +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)
NMSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NMSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
LIB By 1-7 points
16.9%
LIB By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New Mexico State
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
Liberty
62
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
New Mexico State
65
NEW MEXICO STATE
Liberty
72
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
LIB @ NMSU
77 - 75
Jan 15, 2026
NMSU @ LIB
71 - 73
Feb 13, 2025
LIB @ NMSU
64 - 54
Jan 18, 2025
NMSU @ LIB
60 - 68
Feb 29, 2024
NMSU @ LIB
58 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
New Mexico State: 37.7
vs
Liberty: 30.9
Turnovers (L5)
+15.7% more
New Mexico State: 11.4
vs
Liberty: 9.6
Blocks (L5)
+65.7% more
Liberty: 5.0
vs
New Mexico State: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+52.3% more
Liberty: 17.6
vs
New Mexico State: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score
68.0
71
LIB Score
62.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 33.5
47.0 / 44.0
Assists
17.6 / 11.5
16.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.0
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 40.6
54.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 69.8
78.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 37.7
27.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.5
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 11.4
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
NMSU
LIB
NMSU
ML
50%
17-17
61%
19-12
53%
18-16
67%
20-10
ATS
62%
21-13
65%
20-11
53%
18-16
67%
20-10
TTL
41%
14-20
45%
14-17
100%
34-0
100%
30-0
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