MERCER
BEARSMER
10-7 | Road
77
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-11 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
KEYDETS
100%
BEARS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MER -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
MER By 1-7 points
21.6%
MER By 8-14 points
27.4%
VMI By 1-7 points
9.3%
VMI By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
80
MERCER
VMI
69
VMI
Simulated Score
Mercer
68
MERCER
VMI
75
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Keydets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Keydets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
VMI @ MER
81 - 95
Jan 15, 2026
MER @ VMI
77 - 67
Feb 15, 2025
VMI @ MER
80 - 71
Jan 4, 2025
MER @ VMI
70 - 67
Feb 3, 2024
VMI @ MER
69 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+33.5% more
Mercer: 16.2
vs
VMI: 10.8
Blocks (L5)
+21.1% more
Mercer: 3.1
vs
VMI: 2.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+18.2%
Mercer: 46.9%
vs
VMI: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+17.7%
Mercer: 53.5%
vs
VMI: 35.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
80.0
77
VMI Score
69.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 46.9
39.0 / 14.0
Assists
10.8 / 16.2
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
35.8 / 53.5
40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 79.0
75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 33.9
26.0 / 50.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.4
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 11.6
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
MER
VMI
MER
ML
53%
17-15
55%
17-14
84%
27-5
71%
22-9
ATS
50%
16-16
58%
18-13
84%
27-5
71%
22-9
TTL
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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