DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
27-13 | Road
118
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
15-25 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
NUGGETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
24.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
127
DENVER
Dallas
126
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.5
Win
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim
u224.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Denver: 78.4%
vs
Dallas: 74.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+44.3% more
Dallas: 15.5
vs
Denver: 10.7
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Dallas: 42.8
vs
Denver: 38.5
Steals (L5)
+8.3% more
Dallas: 7.0
vs
Denver: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
127.0
118
DAL Score
126.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 39.6
15.0 / 42.0
Assists
26.2 / 24.3
16.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.1
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 45.6
44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 78.4
67.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.8 / 38.5
47.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.5
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 10.7
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DEN
DAL
DEN
ML
62%
63-39
54%
57-48
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
ATS
67%
68-34
63%
65-38-2
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
60-41-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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