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HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

12-5  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 3:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

14-3  |  Home

28
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
TEXANS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

71.6%

Patriots Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.1%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.5%

NE By 1-6 points

12.2%

NE By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31
HOUSTON
23
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u41.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 HOU @ NE 16 - 28
Oct 13, 2024 HOU @ NE 41 - 21
Oct 10, 2021 NE @ HOU 25 - 22
Nov 22, 2020 NE @ HOU 20 - 27
Dec 1, 2019 NE @ HOU 22 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.5% more
New England: 6.1 vs Houston: 4.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +25.3% more
New England: 267.8 vs Houston: 213.8
Total Yards (L5) +22.9% more
New England: 382.5 vs Houston: 311.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.6% more
New England: 114.7 vs Houston: 97.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 31.0 16
NE Score 23.0 28
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
HOU
NE
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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