Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Broncos BUF @ DEN

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

12-5  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:30 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

14-3  |  Home

33
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
BILLS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

61.2%

Broncos Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.0%

DEN By 1-6 points

14.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
BUFFALO
20
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 BUF @ DEN 30 - 33
Jan 12, 2025 DEN @ BUF 7 - 31
Nov 13, 2023 DEN @ BUF 24 - 22
Dec 19, 2020 BUF @ DEN 48 - 19
Nov 24, 2019 DEN @ BUF 3 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.4% more
Buffalo: 1.8 vs Denver: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.5% more
Buffalo: 174.6 vs Denver: 112.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.6% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Denver: 5.2
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Buffalo: 385.2 vs Denver: 348.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 24.0 30
DEN Score 20.0 33
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
BUF
DEN
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 6 hours, 30 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 6 hours, 37 minutes ago
Sean Payton Steps In: Broncos Shake Up Offense After Four Weeks
sportingnews 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Colorado Buffaloes' NFL Draft Hopes Dim for Five Players Amid Th…
si 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels Returns to Full Practice as Commanders Grapple wi…
headtopics 18 hours, 54 minutes ago