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JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

6-11  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Farris Center
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

7-10  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
DOLPHINS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Central Arkansas)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

0.6%

Bears Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

JAX By 1-7 points

0.5%

JAX By 8-14 points

0.1%

CARK By 1-7 points

3.3%

CARK By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
58
JACKSONVILLE
83
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
75
JACKSONVILLE
68
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Dolphins (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 15, 2026 JAX @ CARK 60 - 62
Feb 13, 2025 JAX @ CARK 77 - 62
Jan 18, 2025 CARK @ JAX 62 - 72
Feb 8, 2024 CARK @ JAX 55 - 59
Jan 28, 2023 JAX @ CARK 74 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +54.6% more
Central Arkansas: 17.1 vs Jacksonville: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
Central Arkansas: 36.7 vs Jacksonville: 30.7
Free Throw % (L5) +8.7%
Central Arkansas: 74.5% vs Jacksonville: 65.8%
Steals (L5) +8.4% more
Central Arkansas: 8.2 vs Jacksonville: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 58.0 60
CARK Score 83.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 40.1 29.0 / 21.0
Assists 17.1 / 11.1 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.0 / 2.7 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 45.8 44.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 65.8 71.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 30.7 37.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.5 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.8 10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
JAX
CARK
JAX
ML
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
70% 23-10
60% 18-12
ATS
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
61% 19-12
TTL
50% 16-16-1
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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