Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Waves PORT @ PEPP

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

9-10  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Firestone Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

5-14  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
📊
WAVES
100%
PILOTS --
WAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Portland)
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 WavesPEPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

61.8%

Waves Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

PORT By 1-7 points

27.2%

PORT By 8-14 points

20.1%

PEPP By 1-7 points

21.6%

PEPP By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
87
PORTLAND
84
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
71
PORTLAND
78
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pilots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Waves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pilots (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Waves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 PEPP @ PORT 68 - 77
Feb 18, 2026 PEPP @ PORT 95 - 87
Jan 14, 2026 PORT @ PEPP 63 - 67
Mar 7, 2025 PEPP @ PORT 86 - 73
Feb 27, 2025 PEPP @ PORT 67 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.6% more
Portland: 2.8 vs Pepperdine: 1.8
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Portland: 15.0 vs Pepperdine: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Portland: 32.1% vs Pepperdine: 22.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Portland: 44.5% vs Pepperdine: 37.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 87.0 63
PEPP Score 84.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.9 / 32.1 30.0 / 21.0
Assists 12.4 / 15.0 9.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.8 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 37.7 / 44.5 45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 81.1 60.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 31.7 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.0 / 3.6 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.4 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
PORT
PEPP
PORT
ML
62% 20-12
48% 16-17
69% 22-10
82% 27-6
ATS
56% 18-14
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
82% 28-6
TTL
50% 16-16
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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