Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Trojans USM @ TROY

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

11-7  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Trojan Arena
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROJANSTROY

11-6  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
TROJANS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Southern Miss)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 TrojansTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

99.7%

Trojans Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USM -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-7 points

1.7%

USM By 8-14 points

6.8%

TROY By 1-7 points

0.2%

TROY By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SOUTHERN MISS
45
TROY
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN MISS
72
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 USM @ TROY 70 - 78
Feb 14, 2026 TROY @ USM 65 - 69
Jan 14, 2026 USM @ TROY 65 - 91
Feb 28, 2025 TROY @ USM 70 - 58
Jan 27, 2025 USM @ TROY 61 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.3% more
Southern Miss: 8.5 vs Troy: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5) +16.6%
Southern Miss: 74.8% vs Troy: 58.2%
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Southern Miss: 12.8 vs Troy: 11.5
Assists (L5) +54.7% more
Troy: 19.1 vs Southern Miss: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 73.0 65
TROY Score 45.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.4 / 29.2 44.0 / 15.0
Assists 19.1 / 12.3 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 45.3 52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 58.2 / 74.8 71.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 36.7 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.5 14.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 12.8 8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
USM
TROY
USM
ML
59% 20-14
53% 18-16
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
ATS
65% 22-12
59% 20-14
61% 20-13
74% 25-9
TTL
56% 19-15
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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