Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Hilltoppers MOST @ WKU

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

10-6  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:30 PM ET
E.A. Diddle Arena
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

10-6  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
HILLTOPPERS
0%
BEARS --
HILLTOPPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Western Kentucky)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 HilltoppersWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

24.2%

Hilltoppers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WKU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

MOST By 1-7 points

15.3%

MOST By 8-14 points

5.8%

WKU By 1-7 points

26.2%

WKU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
55
MISSOURI STATE
62
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
70
MISSOURI STATE
75
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hilltoppers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hilltoppers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hilltoppers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Hilltoppers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 WKU @ MOST 74 - 87
Jan 14, 2026 MOST @ WKU 72 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.1% more
Western Kentucky: 43.0 vs Missouri State: 36.7
Blocks (L5) +11.9% more
Western Kentucky: 3.6 vs Missouri State: 3.2
Steals (L5) +9.1% more
Western Kentucky: 8.7 vs Missouri State: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Western Kentucky: 69.8% vs Missouri State: 64.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 55.0 72
WKU Score 62.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 35.3 44.0 / 26.0
Assists 11.8 / 15.2 15.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.2 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 36.8 / 45.3 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 64.8 83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.0 / 36.7 34.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.7 / 8.0 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 13.2 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
WKU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
WKU
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
MOST
WKU
MOST
ML
56% 18-14
65% 22-12
66% 21-11
62% 21-13
ATS
53% 17-15
68% 23-11
66% 21-11
62% 21-13
TTL
56% 18-14
44% 15-19
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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