Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaspers @ Stags MAN @ FAIR

MANHATTAN

JASPERSMAN

8-10  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Leo D. Mahoney Arena
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

10-7  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
JASPERS
100%
📊
STAGS
0%
JASPERS --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Fairfield)
JaspersMAN (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaspers Cover

13.6%

Stags Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

MAN By 1-7 points

9.3%

MAN By 8-14 points

2.7%

FAIR By 1-7 points

21.6%

FAIR By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
87
MANHATTAN
98
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
68
MANHATTAN
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 MAN @ FAIR 60 - 71
Jan 14, 2026 MAN @ FAIR 62 - 98
Dec 5, 2025 FAIR @ MAN 66 - 70
Feb 16, 2025 MAN @ FAIR 80 - 67
Jan 23, 2025 FAIR @ MAN 87 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.8% more
Fairfield: 3.0 vs Manhattan: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +19.9% more
Fairfield: 40.5 vs Manhattan: 33.7
Steals (L5) +27.0% more
Manhattan: 6.2 vs Fairfield: 4.5
Assists (L5) +22.2% more
Manhattan: 14.3 vs Fairfield: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MAN Score 87.0 62
FAIR Score 98.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 33.4 50.0 / 17.0
Assists 11.1 / 14.3 22.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.1 10.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 43.9 57.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 87.5 64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 33.7 41.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.5 / 6.2 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.2 / 8.6 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MAN
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MAN
11-19-1 (36.7%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
FAIR Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +2.4
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
MAN
FAIR
MAN
ML
55% 18-15
52% 16-15
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
ATS
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
TTL
48% 16-17
77% 24-7
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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