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LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

11-8  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 10:00 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

9-10  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
BEAVERS
0%
LIONS --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Oregon State)
LionsLMU (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

8.1%

Beavers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

LMU By 1-7 points

5.8%

LMU By 8-14 points

1.4%

ORST By 1-7 points

16.9%

ORST By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
87
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
68
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
72
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beavers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beavers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 ORST @ LMU 72 - 69
Jan 14, 2026 LMU @ ORST 70 - 76
Jan 2, 2025 ORST @ LMU 61 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.2% more
Oregon State: 13.8 vs Loyola Marymount: 11.7
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
Oregon State: 75.2% vs Loyola Marymount: 70.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Oregon State: 36.5% vs Loyola Marymount: 32.2%
Steals (L5) +12.2% more
Loyola Marymount: 5.8 vs Oregon State: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LMU Score 73.0 70
ORST Score 87.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 32.2 27.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.8 / 11.7 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.9 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 43.3 35.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 70.0 94.0 / 96.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 33.7 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.8 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 11.9 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
ORST Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
LMU
ORST
LMU
ML
45% 15-18
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
ATS
48% 16-17
47% 15-17
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
TTL
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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