Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Cowboys SDSU @ WYO

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

11-4  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Arena-Auditorium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

COWBOYSWYO

11-5  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
AZTECS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
WYOMING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Wyoming)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 CowboysWYO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

4.5%

Cowboys Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WYO -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

SDSU By 1-7 points

3.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

0.6%

WYO By 1-7 points

12.2%

WYO By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
58
SAN DIEGO STATE
75
WYOMING
Simulated Score
60
SAN DIEGO STATE
68
WYOMING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 WYO @ SDSU 63 - 72
Jan 14, 2026 SDSU @ WYO 74 - 57
Mar 1, 2025 SDSU @ WYO 72 - 69
Feb 1, 2025 WYO @ SDSU 61 - 63
Jan 23, 2024 WYO @ SDSU 65 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Wyoming: 37.5% vs San Diego State: 31.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Wyoming: 76.6% vs San Diego State: 71.8%
Blocks (L5) +50.3% more
San Diego State: 4.7 vs Wyoming: 2.3
Assists (L5) +27.3% more
San Diego State: 17.8 vs Wyoming: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 58.0 74
WYO Score 75.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 31.2 29.0 / 41.0
Assists 12.9 / 17.8 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.3 / 4.7 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 47.4 31.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 71.8 68.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 41.8 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.4 / 8.1 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 12.3 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
WYO
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
WYO
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
WYO
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
SDSU
WYO
SDSU
ML
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
72% 23-9
ATS
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
72% 23-9
TTL
64% 21-12
75% 24-8
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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