ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
11-5 | Road
64
SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
10-7 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
100%
HAWKS
0%
BONNIES
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JOES -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
SBU By 1-7 points
1.4%
SBU By 8-14 points
0.2%
JOES By 1-7 points
6.8%
JOES By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Bonaventure
83
ST. BONAVENTURE
Saint Joseph's
104
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Simulated Score
St. Bonaventure
73
ST. BONAVENTURE
Saint Joseph's
78
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
JOES @ SBU
71 - 65
Jan 14, 2026
SBU @ JOES
64 - 68
Feb 26, 2025
SBU @ JOES
64 - 75
Jan 26, 2024
JOES @ SBU
72 - 91
Feb 26, 2023
JOES @ SBU
76 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.1% more
Saint Joseph's: 6.1
vs
St. Bonaventure: 5.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.2% more
Saint Joseph's: 37.3
vs
St. Bonaventure: 32.9
Blocks (L5)
+9.2% more
Saint Joseph's: 4.0
vs
St. Bonaventure: 3.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.3%
St. Bonaventure: 80.5%
vs
Saint Joseph's: 66.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SBU Score
83.0
64
JOES Score
104.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 40.5
33.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.9 / 14.2
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.7
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 47.2
42.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
66.2 / 80.5
88.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 32.9
35.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.1
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 10.2
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
JOES
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JOES
SBU
JOES
SBU
ML
51%
18-17
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
ATS
60%
21-14
50%
17-17
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
TTL
54%
19-16
38%
13-21
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
Kansas Jayhawks Lose RB Yasin Willis Indefinitely, Backfield Dep…
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…