EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
12-5 | Road
68
WESTERN CAROLINA
CATAMOUNTSWCU
5-10 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
CATAMOUNTS
100%
BUCCANEERS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WCU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)
ETSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
ETSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
WCU By 1-7 points
16.9%
WCU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
East Tennessee State
73
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Western Carolina
67
WESTERN CAROLINA
Simulated Score
East Tennessee State
71
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Western Carolina
77
WESTERN CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Buccaneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
WCU @ ETSU
67 - 69
Jan 29, 2026
WCU @ ETSU
90 - 88
Jan 14, 2026
ETSU @ WCU
68 - 72
Feb 12, 2025
ETSU @ WCU
67 - 76
Jan 22, 2025
WCU @ ETSU
58 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.7% more
East Tennessee State: 9.7
vs
Western Carolina: 6.2
Blocks (L5)
+17.4% more
East Tennessee State: 3.9
vs
Western Carolina: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+13.8% more
East Tennessee State: 14.4
vs
Western Carolina: 12.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.3%
East Tennessee State: 53.0%
vs
Western Carolina: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score
73.0
68
WCU Score
67.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 36.0
35.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.4 / 14.4
17.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.9
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 53.0
48.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
69.2 / 78.1
75.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 31.6
39.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.2 / 9.7
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 9.9
14.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
WCU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
WCU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WCU
ETSU
WCU
ETSU
ML
63%
19-11
42%
14-19
76%
22-7
70%
23-10
ATS
73%
22-8
58%
19-14
77%
23-7
70%
23-10
TTL
67%
20-10
45%
15-18
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
