NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
12-4 | Road
62
UTAH STATE
AGGIESUSU
14-1 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
AGGIES
0%
WOLF PACK
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Utah State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)
NEV By 1-7 points
16.9%
NEV By 8-14 points
6.8%
USU By 1-7 points
26.8%
USU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
89
NEVADA
Utah State
95
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
Nevada
72
NEVADA
Utah State
75
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
NEV @ USU
66 - 79
Feb 21, 2026
USU @ NEV
77 - 80
Jan 14, 2026
NEV @ USU
62 - 71
Jan 22, 2025
NEV @ USU
69 - 90
Dec 31, 2024
USU @ NEV
69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.7% more
Utah State: 7.5
vs
Nevada: 6.1
Assists (L5)
+19.3% more
Utah State: 19.3
vs
Nevada: 16.1
Rebounding (L5)
+17.4% more
Utah State: 35.5
vs
Nevada: 30.2
Turnovers (L5)
+14.6% more
Utah State: 9.7
vs
Nevada: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
89.0
62
USU Score
95.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 43.7
33.0 / 44.0
Assists
19.3 / 16.1
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.4
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
56.5 / 48.4
45.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 80.1
83.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 30.2
34.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.1
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 8.4
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
USU
Advantage
29-7-0
(80.6%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
USU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
NEV
USU
NEV
ML
49%
17-18
62%
23-14
66%
21-11
73%
27-10
ATS
74%
26-9
73%
27-10
67%
22-11
73%
27-10
TTL
51%
18-17
49%
18-19
100%
33-0
100%
37-0
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