Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sun Devils @ Wildcats ASU @ ARIZ

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

10-6  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 10:30 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

16-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
SUN DEVILS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arizona)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

24.2%

Wildcats Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ASU By 1-7 points

15.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

5.8%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
ARIZONA STATE
78
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
78
ARIZONA STATE
72
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 ARIZ @ ASU 87 - 74
Jan 14, 2026 ASU @ ARIZ 82 - 89
Mar 4, 2025 ASU @ ARIZ 100 - 113
Feb 1, 2025 ARIZ @ ASU 81 - 72
Feb 28, 2024 ARIZ @ ASU 85 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.1% more
Arizona: 19.7 vs Arizona State: 15.6
Steals (L5) +20.9% more
Arizona: 8.9 vs Arizona State: 7.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.9% more
Arizona: 44.5 vs Arizona State: 38.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.7%
Arizona: 36.4% vs Arizona State: 22.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 71.0 82
ARIZ Score 78.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 22.7 36.0 / 44.0
Assists 19.7 / 15.6 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.9 / 6.2 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 44.6 54.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 77.2 81.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 44.5 / 38.8 39.0 / 28.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.3 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.7 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ARIZ
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
ASU
ARIZ
ASU
ML
67% 26-13
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
68% 21-10
ATS
74% 29-10
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
68% 21-10
TTL
56% 22-17
64% 21-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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