Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Longhorns VAN @ TEX

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

16-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Moody Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

LONGHORNSTEX

10-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
0%
📊
LONGHORNS
100%
COMMODORES --
LONGHORNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 LonghornsTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

42.1%

Longhorns Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TEX +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

VAN By 1-7 points

26.8%

VAN By 8-14 points

18.6%

TEX By 1-7 points

23.0%

TEX By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
84
VANDERBILT
82
TEXAS
Simulated Score
68
VANDERBILT
75
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Commodores Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Longhorns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Longhorns (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Longhorns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 VAN @ TEX 64 - 80
Mar 12, 2025 TEX @ VAN 79 - 72
Feb 8, 2025 TEX @ VAN 78 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.8% more
Vanderbilt: 5.7 vs Texas: 3.4
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
Vanderbilt: 15.4 vs Texas: 11.5
Steals (L5) +23.4% more
Vanderbilt: 9.0 vs Texas: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Vanderbilt: 78.6% vs Texas: 73.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 84.0 64
TEX Score 82.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 33.4 41.0 / 36.0
Assists 11.5 / 15.4 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.7 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 47.5 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 78.6 86.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 37.3 42.0 / 24.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.0 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 8.6 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
TEX
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
TEX Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
VAN
TEX
VAN
ML
58% 21-15
69% 25-11
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
ATS
56% 20-16
78% 28-8
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
TTL
64% 23-13
58% 21-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 15 hours, 45 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day, 3 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 23 hours ago
Colorado Buffaloes Playbook Left in Hotel Bar, Found by Texas Te…
si 4 days, 3 hours ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 16 hours ago