Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Bobcats UL @ TXST

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

4-14  |  Road

54
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

9-9  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
0%
📊
BOBCATS
100%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 BobcatsTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

46.0%

Bobcats Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXST +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

UL By 1-7 points

26.2%

UL By 8-14 points

16.9%

TXST By 1-7 points

24.3%

TXST By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
88
LOUISIANA
87
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
LOUISIANA
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ragin' Cajuns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o132.5 Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 TXST @ UL 54 - 67
Jan 14, 2026 UL @ TXST 54 - 59
Jan 30, 2025 UL @ TXST 70 - 61
Jan 23, 2025 TXST @ UL 89 - 74
Jan 28, 2024 TXST @ UL 46 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.1% more
Louisiana: 3.9 vs Texas State: 2.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Louisiana: 36.0% vs Texas State: 25.7%
Steals (L5) +106.5% more
Texas State: 10.4 vs Louisiana: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +25.2% more
Texas State: 14.3 vs Louisiana: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 88.0 54
TXST Score 87.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.7 / 36.0 43.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.6 / 12.8 14.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.9 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 44.3 50.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 68.9 60.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 28.0 35.0 / 24.0
Steals 10.4 / 5.1 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 11.4 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
TXST Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
UL
TXST
UL
ML
42% 13-18
66% 21-11
83% 25-5
63% 19-11
ATS
48% 15-16
66% 21-11
84% 26-5
63% 19-11
TTL
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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