SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
9-9 | Road
65
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
14-5 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
BISON
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (North Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)
SDST By 1-7 points
2.7%
SDST By 8-14 points
0.5%
NDSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
NDSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
76
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
North Dakota State
94
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
69
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
North Dakota State
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bison
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
NDSU @ SDST
74 - 66
Jan 14, 2026
SDST @ NDSU
65 - 76
Feb 19, 2025
NDSU @ SDST
77 - 68
Jan 30, 2025
SDST @ NDSU
72 - 62
Mar 2, 2024
SDST @ NDSU
78 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+75.7% more
North Dakota State: 8.1
vs
South Dakota State: 4.6
Blocks (L5)
+33.0% more
North Dakota State: 3.5
vs
South Dakota State: 2.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
North Dakota State: 51.2%
vs
South Dakota State: 47.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
North Dakota State: 75.4%
vs
South Dakota State: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
76.0
65
NDSU Score
94.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 35.6
45.0 / 35.0
Assists
15.7 / 15.4
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.6
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 47.8
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 72.4
83.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 38.0
31.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.1 / 4.6
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.6
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
SDST
NDSU
SDST
ML
49%
17-18
75%
24-8
59%
20-14
53%
17-15
ATS
54%
19-16
78%
25-7
59%
20-14
53%
17-15
TTL
43%
15-20
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
