BUTLER
BULLDOGSBUT
10-6 | Road
75
XAVIER
MUSKETEERSXAV
10-7 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
MUSKETEERS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
MUSKETEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Butler)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUT -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)
BUT By 1-7 points
21.6%
BUT By 8-14 points
27.4%
XAV By 1-7 points
9.3%
XAV By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Butler
75
BUTLER
Xavier
64
XAVIER
Simulated Score
Butler
72
BUTLER
Xavier
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Musketeers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Musketeers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
XAV @ BUT
75 - 80
Jan 14, 2026
BUT @ XAV
75 - 89
Mar 5, 2025
XAV @ BUT
91 - 78
Feb 18, 2025
BUT @ XAV
63 - 76
Mar 13, 2024
XAV @ BUT
76 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.3% more
Butler: 14.6
vs
Xavier: 9.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.2%
Butler: 81.5%
vs
Xavier: 70.3%
Blocks (L5)
+145.8% more
Xavier: 5.3
vs
Butler: 2.2
Assists (L5)
+24.7% more
Xavier: 18.5
vs
Butler: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUT Score
75.0
75
XAV Score
64.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 32.5
32.0 / 30.0
Assists
18.5 / 14.8
30.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.3 / 2.2
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 44.8
47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 81.5
83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 37.7
42.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.7
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 14.6
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
XAV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
XAV
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.0
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
BUT
XAV
BUT
ML
58%
19-14
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
ATS
73%
24-9
56%
18-14
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
TTL
39%
13-20
50%
16-16
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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