IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
12-4 | Road
72
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
15-1 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
HAWKEYES
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
IOWA By 1-7 points
13.7%
IOWA By 8-14 points
4.8%
PUR By 1-7 points
25.3%
PUR By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
51
IOWA
Purdue
59
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Iowa
72
IOWA
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
PUR @ IOWA
78 - 57
Jan 14, 2026
IOWA @ PUR
72 - 79
Feb 4, 2025
PUR @ IOWA
90 - 81
Jan 20, 2024
PUR @ IOWA
84 - 70
Dec 4, 2023
IOWA @ PUR
68 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+38.0% more
Purdue: 22.3
vs
Iowa: 16.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
Purdue: 54.8%
vs
Iowa: 46.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Purdue: 37.0%
vs
Iowa: 32.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+21.8%
Iowa: 85.9%
vs
Purdue: 64.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
51.0
72
PUR Score
59.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 32.0
43.0 / 48.0
Assists
22.3 / 16.2
20.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
54.8 / 46.0
53.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
64.2 / 85.9
86.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 33.2
26.0 / 23.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.9
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 10.5
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
IOWA
PUR
IOWA
ML
67%
26-13
59%
22-15
66%
25-13
78%
28-8
ATS
64%
25-14
76%
28-9
66%
25-13
78%
28-8
TTL
51%
20-19
57%
21-16
100%
38-0
100%
36-0
Contextual Game News
Tyrese Haliburton Set to Make Emotional Return to Iowa State as …
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
Jess Sims Conquers Hay Bale Toss on College GameDay in Iowa
Iowa State's Two-Center Experiment: Will Buchanan and Pleta Shar…
Colts 2026-27 Tickets: Schedule, Best Matchups, Prices & Lucas O…