MARQUETTE
GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ
6-11 | Road
68
ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
11-5 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
RED STORM
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
RED STORM
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
MARQ By 1-7 points
3.3%
MARQ By 8-14 points
0.6%
SJU By 1-7 points
12.2%
SJU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Marquette
54
MARQUETTE
St. John's
71
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
Marquette
77
MARQUETTE
St. John's
82
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Storm
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm (-16)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Red Storm (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
SJU @ MARQ
76 - 70
Jan 13, 2026
MARQ @ SJU
68 - 92
Mar 14, 2025
MARQ @ SJU
63 - 79
Mar 8, 2025
SJU @ MARQ
86 - 84
Feb 4, 2025
MARQ @ SJU
64 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+98.4% more
St. John's: 5.0
vs
Marquette: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+16.8% more
St. John's: 16.2
vs
Marquette: 13.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.6%
St. John's: 41.4%
vs
Marquette: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
St. John's: 45.9%
vs
Marquette: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MARQ Score
54.0
68
SJU Score
71.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 28.8
26.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.2 / 13.9
20.0 / 10.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.5
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 39.4
51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 66.6
88.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 34.9
39.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.3 / 9.2
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.8
12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARQ
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.5
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARQ
12-19-1
(38.7%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.5
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
MARQ
SJU
MARQ
ML
62%
18-11
59%
19-13
62%
18-11
62%
20-12
ATS
66%
19-10
53%
17-15
62%
18-11
62%
20-12
TTL
59%
17-12
50%
16-16
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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