SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
27-12 | Road
98
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
33-7 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
THUNDER
100%
SPURS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
23.0%
SA By 8-14 points
27.2%
OKC By 1-7 points
10.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
117
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
107
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
106
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.9% more
San Antonio: 50.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 42.1
Turnovers (L5)
+13.7% more
San Antonio: 12.2
vs
Oklahoma City: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
San Antonio: 81.5%
vs
Oklahoma City: 77.3%
Blocks (L5)
+106.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.7
vs
San Antonio: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
117.0
98
OKC Score
107.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 27.9
37.0 / 35.0
Assists
23.8 / 22.4
26.0 / 21.0
Blocks
6.7 / 3.2
11.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 41.7
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 81.5
89.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 50.0
43.0 / 42.0
Steals
11.0 / 6.9
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 12.2
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
70%
80-34
60%
111-73
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
107-76-1
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
TTL
67%
76-38
74%
134-47-3
100%
95-0
100%
105-0
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