DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
26-13 | Road
122
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
9-32 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
PELICANS
100%
NUGGETS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
23.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.2%
NO By 1-7 points
10.7%
NO By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
118
DENVER
New Orleans
108
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
New Orleans
115
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
DEN @ NO
122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025
DEN @ NO
125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025
NO @ DEN
88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025
NO @ DEN
119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025
NO @ DEN
113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
Denver: 77.2%
vs
New Orleans: 72.5%
Steals (L5)
+67.3% more
New Orleans: 9.6
vs
Denver: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+47.6% more
New Orleans: 7.0
vs
Denver: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+38.1% more
New Orleans: 17.4
vs
Denver: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
118.0
122
NO Score
108.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 39.5
38.0 / 40.0
Assists
27.2 / 24.4
21.0 / 24.0
Blocks
7.0 / 4.7
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 43.9
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 77.2
87.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 41.7
51.0 / 32.0
Steals
9.6 / 5.8
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
17.4 / 12.6
15.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DEN
NO
DEN
ML
62%
98-61
54%
57-48
58%
48-35
55%
47-39
ATS
68%
107-51-1
63%
65-38-2
58%
48-35
55%
47-39
TTL
75%
119-40
54%
56-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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