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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

19-21  |  Road

97
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 11:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

21-19  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

93.3%

Warriors Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

15.3%

POR By 8-14 points

25.3%

GS By 1-7 points

4.8%

GS By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
129
PORTLAND
114
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
109
PORTLAND
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.0 Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.5% more
Portland: 8.0 vs Golden State: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Portland: 34.3% vs Golden State: 32.7%
Assists (L5) +24.8% more
Golden State: 31.0 vs Portland: 24.9
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Golden State: 48.1% vs Portland: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 129.0 97
GS Score 114.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 34.3 40.0 / 30.0
Assists 31.0 / 24.9 34.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.4 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 45.7 47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 84.6 / 83.9 92.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 42.2 34.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.0 16.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 14.2 14.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
POR
GS
POR
ML
55% 95-79
53% 56-49
58% 49-35
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 65-39-1
58% 49-35
55% 49-40
TTL
77% 134-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 84-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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