PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
24-15 | Road
121
MIAMI
HEATMIA
20-19 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
HEAT
100%
SUNS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
23.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
124
PHOENIX
Miami
114
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
MIA @ PHX
111 - 102
Jan 13, 2026
PHX @ MIA
121 - 127
Dec 7, 2024
PHX @ MIA
111 - 121
Nov 6, 2024
MIA @ PHX
112 - 115
Jan 29, 2024
PHX @ MIA
118 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.1%
Phoenix: 78.0%
vs
Miami: 70.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+34.8% more
Miami: 19.3
vs
Phoenix: 14.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Miami: 45.9%
vs
Phoenix: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
124.0
121
MIA Score
114.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 35.8
34.0 / 29.0
Assists
28.2 / 27.2
28.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.8
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 44.2
52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 78.0
82.0 / 95.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 46.2
41.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.9
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
19.3 / 14.3
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHX
MIA
PHX
ML
48%
46-50
57%
60-45
59%
48-34
51%
45-43
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
59-43-3
59%
48-34
51%
45-43
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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