Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Lakers ATL @ LAL

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

20-21  |  Road

116
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

23-14  |  Home

141
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
HAWKS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

57.9%

Lakers Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-7 points

26.8%

ATL By 8-14 points

18.6%

LAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115
ATLANTA
113
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
110
ATLANTA
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 ATL @ LAL 116 - 141
Nov 8, 2025 LAL @ ATL 102 - 122
Jan 3, 2025 ATL @ LAL 102 - 119
Dec 6, 2024 LAL @ ATL 132 - 134
Mar 18, 2024 ATL @ LAL 105 - 136
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.4% more
Atlanta: 4.9 vs Los Angeles: 2.5
Assists (L5) +24.6% more
Atlanta: 31.6 vs Los Angeles: 23.8
Steals (L5) +19.3% more
Atlanta: 11.1 vs Los Angeles: 8.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Atlanta: 37.8% vs Los Angeles: 29.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 115.0 116
LAL Score 113.0 141
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 37.8 56.0 / 28.0
Assists 23.8 / 31.6 36.0 / 30.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.9 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 47.3 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 66.1 87.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 42.0 / 44.3 47.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.9 / 11.1 2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.7 16.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
ATL
LAL
ATL
ML
61% 68-43
50% 52-52
54% 49-42
55% 48-40
ATS
61% 67-43-1
53% 55-48-1
54% 49-42
55% 48-40
TTL
61% 66-43-2
53% 55-48-1
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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