TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
28-13-3 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
21-14-9 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 0.93 | 0.963 | -- |
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 0.94 | 0.968 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.93 Ldr
GAA
0.94
0.963
Save %
Ldr 0.968
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
PENGUINS
100%
LIGHTNING
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
PIT @ TB
3 - 6
Jan 13, 2026
TB @ PIT
2 - 1
Dec 4, 2025
PIT @ TB
4 - 3
Mar 25, 2025
PIT @ TB
1 - 6
Jan 12, 2025
TB @ PIT
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+23.3%
Tampa Bay: 36.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+23.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+48.0% more
Pittsburgh: 16.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.9
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.6% more
Pittsburgh: 29.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 25.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
2
PIT Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.2 / 10.9
15.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
49.2 / 43.6
56.8 / 43.2
Hits
15.8 / 15.3
13.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
1270.0 / 3604.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.6 / 25.4
27.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 4.8
9.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TB
PIT
TB
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
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