MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
26-14-6 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
23-17-6 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 2.81 | 0.929 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.88 | 0.920 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.81
GAA
Ldr 1.88
0.929 Ldr
Save %
0.920
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
CANADIENS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
WSH @ MTL
2 - 6
Jan 13, 2026
MTL @ WSH
2 - 3
Nov 20, 2025
WSH @ MTL
8 - 4
Apr 30, 2025
MTL @ WSH
1 - 4
Apr 27, 2025
WSH @ MTL
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.8%
Washington: 51.6%
vs
Montreal: 48.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+40.0% more
Montreal: 19.9
vs
Washington: 12.0
Hits (L5)
+22.3% more
Montreal: 24.3
vs
Washington: 18.9
Power Play % (L5)
+19.4%
Montreal: 35.5%
vs
Washington: 16.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
2.0
2
WSH Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.0 / 19.9
15.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
51.6 / 48.8
45.8 / 54.2
Hits
18.9 / 24.3
18.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
1608.0 / 3551.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.8 / 31.4
42.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 5.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MTL
WSH
MTL
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…