Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Ramblers GMU @ LUC

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

16-1  |  Road

82
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Gentile Arena
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA CHICAGO

RAMBLERSLUC

5-12  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
RAMBLERS
100%
PATRIOTS --
RAMBLERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (George Mason)
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 RamblersLUC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

99.2%

Ramblers Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GMU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

GMU By 1-7 points

4.0%

GMU By 8-14 points

12.2%

LUC By 1-7 points

0.6%

LUC By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
76
GEORGE MASON
52
LOYOLA CHICAGO
Simulated Score
68
GEORGE MASON
72
LOYOLA CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ramblers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Ramblers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 GMU @ LUC 82 - 74
Jan 29, 2025 LUC @ GMU 53 - 58
Feb 24, 2024 GMU @ LUC 59 - 80
Feb 7, 2024 LUC @ GMU 85 - 79
Feb 4, 2023 GMU @ LUC 61 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +14.8%
George Mason: 75.9% vs Loyola Chicago: 61.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
George Mason: 50.3% vs Loyola Chicago: 41.6%
Blocks (L5) +114.2% more
Loyola Chicago: 4.2 vs George Mason: 2.0
Turnovers (L5) +112.6% more
Loyola Chicago: 15.9 vs George Mason: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 76.0 82
LUC Score 52.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 24.3 29.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.5 / 14.2 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.6 / 50.3 54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 61.2 / 75.9 56.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 33.6 25.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.1 / 4.7 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 7.5 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
LUC
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
LUC
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
LUC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LUC
GMU
LUC
GMU
ML
55% 18-15
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
ATS
64% 21-12
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
TTL
76% 25-8
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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