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GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

10-5  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

13-3  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
LOPES --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (New Mexico)
LopesGCU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lopes Cover

21.2%

Lobos Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

GCU By 1-7 points

13.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

4.8%

UNM By 1-7 points

25.3%

UNM By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
56
GRAND CANYON
64
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
74
GRAND CANYON
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 UNM @ GCU 70 - 64
Jan 13, 2026 GCU @ UNM 64 - 87
Dec 17, 2019 GCU @ UNM 71 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.5% more
New Mexico: 15.2 vs Grand Canyon: 13.2
Steals (L5) +11.5% more
New Mexico: 9.3 vs Grand Canyon: 8.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
New Mexico: 36.9% vs Grand Canyon: 30.9%
Blocks (L5) +30.4% more
Grand Canyon: 3.7 vs New Mexico: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GCU Score 56.0 64
UNM Score 64.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 30.9 50.0 / 26.0
Assists 15.2 / 13.2 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 46.5 53.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 76.7 75.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 34.7 39.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.3 / 8.4 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 12.6 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
GCU
UNM
GCU
ML
57% 21-16
66% 21-11
74% 25-9
68% 21-10
ATS
57% 21-16
72% 23-9
74% 25-9
68% 21-10
TTL
41% 15-22
44% 14-18
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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