BALL STATE
CARDINALSBALL
4-12 | Road
77
AKRON
ZIPSAKR
12-4 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
ZIPS
0%
CARDINALS
--
ZIPS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Akron)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AKR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)
BALL By 1-7 points
6.8%
BALL By 8-14 points
1.7%
AKR By 1-7 points
18.6%
AKR By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Ball State
71
BALL STATE
Akron
84
AKRON
Simulated Score
Ball State
69
BALL STATE
Akron
74
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Zips
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Zips
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Zips (+20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Zips (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
AKR @ BALL
78 - 65
Jan 13, 2026
BALL @ AKR
77 - 87
Feb 25, 2025
AKR @ BALL
87 - 82
Feb 4, 2025
BALL @ AKR
73 - 81
Jan 9, 2024
AKR @ BALL
80 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.6% more
Akron: 2.7
vs
Ball State: 1.8
Assists (L5)
+45.1% more
Akron: 19.4
vs
Ball State: 13.4
Turnovers (L5)
+43.7% more
Akron: 13.9
vs
Ball State: 9.7
Rebounding (L5)
+41.1% more
Akron: 38.0
vs
Ball State: 27.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BALL Score
71.0
77
AKR Score
84.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 31.6
37.0 / 32.0
Assists
19.4 / 13.4
16.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.7 / 1.8
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 40.6
48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 77.1
88.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 27.0
33.0 / 31.0
Steals
9.5 / 8.6
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 9.7
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
AKR
Advantage
29-6-0
(82.9%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
AKR
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -6.2
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
BALL
AKR
BALL
ML
71%
24-10
43%
13-17
65%
22-12
62%
18-11
ATS
76%
26-8
67%
20-10
65%
22-12
62%
18-11
TTL
59%
20-14
50%
15-15
100%
34-0
100%
29-0
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