COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
11-5 | Road
69
FRESNO STATE
BULLDOGSFRES
7-9 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
RAMS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-55.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +55.0 points (Colorado State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU -55.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)
CSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
CSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
FRES By 1-7 points
0.0%
FRES By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado State
99
COLORADO STATE
Fresno State
44
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
Colorado State
67
COLORADO STATE
Fresno State
78
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rams
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rams (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -55.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
FRES @ CSU
63 - 67
Feb 24, 2026
FRES @ CSU
70 - 74
Jan 13, 2026
CSU @ FRES
69 - 79
Jan 25, 2025
CSU @ FRES
69 - 64
Jan 7, 2025
FRES @ CSU
64 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.7% more
Colorado State: 2.4
vs
Fresno State: 1.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Colorado State: 44.7%
vs
Fresno State: 40.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Colorado State: 35.9%
vs
Fresno State: 31.8%
Steals (L5)
+31.9% more
Fresno State: 7.8
vs
Colorado State: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSU Score
99.0
69
FRES Score
44.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 35.9
40.0 / 28.0
Assists
13.3 / 12.9
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.7 / 2.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 44.7
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
84.6 / 73.4
96.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 33.2
32.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.8 / 5.9
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 13.4
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
FRES
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
FRES
Advantage
21-10-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
CSU
FRES
CSU
ML
59%
19-13
56%
19-15
74%
23-8
65%
20-11
ATS
75%
24-8
62%
21-13
74%
23-8
65%
20-11
TTL
56%
18-14
56%
19-15
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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