OHIO
BOBCATSOHIO
10-7 | Road
85
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
9-7 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
BOBCATS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Ohio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OHIO -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)
OHIO By 1-7 points
2.7%
OHIO By 8-14 points
9.3%
TOL By 1-7 points
0.4%
TOL By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Ohio
94
OHIO
Toledo
68
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Ohio
75
OHIO
Toledo
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
TOL @ OHIO
79 - 67
Jan 13, 2026
OHIO @ TOL
85 - 101
Mar 13, 2025
OHIO @ TOL
85 - 90
Mar 7, 2025
OHIO @ TOL
82 - 96
Jan 28, 2025
TOL @ OHIO
86 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.7% more
Ohio: 3.7
vs
Toledo: 2.4
Turnovers (L5)
+29.5% more
Ohio: 14.4
vs
Toledo: 10.2
Assists (L5)
+18.3% more
Ohio: 15.1
vs
Toledo: 12.4
Steals (L5)
+14.3% more
Ohio: 8.1
vs
Toledo: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score
94.0
85
TOL Score
68.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 32.1
41.0 / 39.0
Assists
12.4 / 15.1
22.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.7
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 51.5
62.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 74.0
94.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 36.1
33.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.1
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 14.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
TOL
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
OHIO
TOL
OHIO
ML
48%
16-17
65%
20-11
61%
20-13
63%
19-11
ATS
48%
16-17
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
63%
19-11
TTL
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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