DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
12-4 | Road
71
DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
9-7 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
DUKES
100%
FLYERS
--
DUKES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Dayton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)
DAY By 1-7 points
0.1%
DAY By 8-14 points
1.1%
DUQ By 1-7 points
0.0%
DUQ By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
93
DAYTON
Duquesne
56
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
Dayton
67
DAYTON
Duquesne
72
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flyers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flyers (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Dukes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
DUQ @ DAY
66 - 78
Jan 13, 2026
DAY @ DUQ
71 - 65
Feb 15, 2025
DUQ @ DAY
76 - 77
Jan 21, 2025
DAY @ DUQ
82 - 62
Mar 14, 2024
DUQ @ DAY
65 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.0% more
Dayton: 11.2
vs
Duquesne: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Dayton: 81.0%
vs
Duquesne: 76.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+38.7% more
Duquesne: 13.1
vs
Dayton: 9.4
Blocks (L5)
+37.2% more
Duquesne: 3.3
vs
Dayton: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
93.0
71
DUQ Score
56.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 29.8
28.0 / 40.0
Assists
16.4 / 14.2
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 42.1
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 81.0
73.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 30.9
31.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.6 / 11.2
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 9.4
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
DAY
DUQ
DAY
ML
53%
17-15
65%
24-13
58%
18-13
64%
23-13
ATS
69%
22-10
68%
25-12
58%
18-13
64%
23-13
TTL
50%
16-16
57%
21-16
100%
31-0
100%
36-0
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