SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
16-2 | Road
82
SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
12-7 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
DONS
0%
GAELS
--
DONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-59.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +59.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -59.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SMC By 1-7 points
0.0%
SMC By 8-14 points
0.0%
SF By 1-7 points
0.0%
SF By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
46
SAINT MARY'S
San Francisco
105
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
65
SAINT MARY'S
San Francisco
70
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dons (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -59.0
D
Sim
Dons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
SF @ SMC
54 - 79
Jan 13, 2026
SMC @ SF
82 - 68
Feb 6, 2025
SMC @ SF
64 - 65
Jan 23, 2025
SF @ SMC
51 - 71
Feb 20, 2024
SF @ SMC
66 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+23.9% more
San Francisco: 44.8
vs
Saint Mary's: 36.2
Blocks (L5)
+8.6% more
San Francisco: 3.0
vs
Saint Mary's: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+23.2%
Saint Mary's: 88.6%
vs
San Francisco: 65.4%
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
Saint Mary's: 18.2
vs
San Francisco: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
46.0
82
SF Score
105.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 43.1
42.0 / 53.0
Assists
14.8 / 18.2
11.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.8
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 49.2
44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
65.4 / 88.6
38.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 36.2
26.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.5 / 6.1
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 11.1
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
SF
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SMC
SF
SMC
ML
39%
13-20
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
82%
23-5
ATS
42%
14-19
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
83%
24-5
TTL
73%
24-9
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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