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MARYLAND

TERRAPINSMD

7-9  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 10:30 PM ET
Galen Center
View Odds Details →

USC

TROJANSUSC

13-3  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
0%
📊
TROJANS
100%
TERRAPINS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TerrapinsMD (-3.5) 0 TrojansUSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Terrapins Cover

38.2%

Trojans Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

MD By 1-7 points

27.2%

MD By 8-14 points

20.1%

USC By 1-7 points

21.6%

USC By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
84
MARYLAND
81
USC
Simulated Score
70
MARYLAND
75
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Terrapins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trojans (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 MD @ USC 71 - 88
Feb 20, 2025 USC @ MD 71 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +73.7% more
USC: 5.0 vs Maryland: 2.9
Assists (L5) +50.6% more
USC: 14.6 vs Maryland: 9.7
Steals (L5) +47.9% more
USC: 7.0 vs Maryland: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +29.7% more
USC: 15.6 vs Maryland: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 84.0 71
USC Score 81.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.7 / 24.6 32.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.6 / 9.7 23.0 / 6.0
Blocks 5.0 / 2.9 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 35.5 52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 68.1 75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 39.7 35.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.7 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 12.0 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
USC Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
USC
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: -0.8
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
MD
USC
MD
ML
52% 16-15
70% 23-10
58% 18-13
67% 22-11
ATS
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
58% 18-13
67% 22-11
TTL
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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