Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Spartans AF @ SJSU

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-13  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

5-11  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
FALCONS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Air Force)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

98.2%

Spartans Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AF -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)

AF By 1-7 points

6.8%

AF By 8-14 points

16.9%

SJSU By 1-7 points

1.4%

SJSU By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
89
AIR FORCE
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
63
AIR FORCE
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Falcons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 SJSU @ AF 86 - 80
Jan 13, 2026 AF @ SJSU 62 - 70
Feb 1, 2025 AF @ SJSU 64 - 75
Jan 11, 2025 SJSU @ AF 69 - 62
Feb 13, 2024 AF @ SJSU 66 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.3% more
Air Force: 16.2 vs San José State: 12.8
Assists (L5) +9.0% more
Air Force: 10.4 vs San José State: 9.4
Steals (L5) +43.7% more
San José State: 7.1 vs Air Force: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5) +16.4%
San José State: 73.9% vs Air Force: 57.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 89.0 62
SJSU Score 68.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 21.0 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 9.4 / 10.4 9.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.5 / 40.6 47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 57.6 75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 25.6 / 27.6 27.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.0 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 16.2 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
SJSU Advantage
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
SJSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
AF
SJSU
AF
ML
73% 24-9
81% 26-6
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
ATS
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
TTL
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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