BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
9-7 | Road
85
UNLV
REBELSUNLV
7-8 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
REBELS
0%
BRONCOS
--
REBELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UNLV)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)
BOIS By 1-7 points
4.0%
BOIS By 8-14 points
0.8%
UNLV By 1-7 points
13.7%
UNLV By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boise State
59
BOISE STATE
UNLV
75
UNLV
Simulated Score
Boise State
72
BOISE STATE
UNLV
75
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rebels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rebels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rebels (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Rebels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 13, 2026
UNLV @ BOIS
86 - 83
Jan 13, 2026
BOIS @ UNLV
85 - 89
Feb 4, 2025
BOIS @ UNLV
71 - 62
Jan 7, 2025
UNLV @ BOIS
59 - 81
Jan 16, 2024
UNLV @ BOIS
68 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+90.8% more
UNLV: 8.9
vs
Boise State: 4.7
Blocks (L5)
+55.5% more
UNLV: 4.4
vs
Boise State: 2.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
UNLV: 33.5%
vs
Boise State: 27.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
UNLV: 42.4%
vs
Boise State: 38.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score
59.0
85
UNLV Score
75.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 27.6
33.0 / 21.0
Assists
11.0 / 10.6
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 38.9
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
62.9 / 77.2
71.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 34.9
40.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.9 / 4.7
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.0
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
UNLV
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
BOIS
UNLV
BOIS
ML
50%
17-17
50%
16-16
59%
20-14
61%
19-12
ATS
65%
22-12
50%
16-16
59%
20-14
61%
19-12
TTL
62%
21-13
56%
18-14
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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