Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Friars VILL @ PROV

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

13-3  |  Road

88
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 6:30 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

8-8  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
FRIARS
0%
WILDCATS --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Providence)
WildcatsVILL (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

9.7%

Friars Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

VILL By 1-7 points

6.8%

VILL By 8-14 points

1.7%

PROV By 1-7 points

18.6%

PROV By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
72
VILLANOVA
85
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
68
VILLANOVA
72
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Friars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Friars (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 PROV @ VILL 73 - 87
Jan 13, 2026 VILL @ PROV 88 - 82
Feb 15, 2025 VILL @ PROV 62 - 75
Jan 17, 2025 PROV @ VILL 73 - 75
Mar 2, 2024 VILL @ PROV 71 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.9% more
Providence: 12.1 vs Villanova: 9.4
Rebounding (L5) +27.4% more
Providence: 39.3 vs Villanova: 30.8
Assists (L5) +20.4% more
Providence: 16.1 vs Villanova: 13.4
Blocks (L5) +20.1% more
Providence: 3.6 vs Villanova: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 72.0 88
PROV Score 85.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 31.7 32.0 / 36.0
Assists 16.1 / 13.4 12.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 48.8 55.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 79.9 71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 30.8 27.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.1 / 7.0 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.4 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
PROV
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
VILL
PROV
VILL
ML
59% 19-13
44% 14-18
67% 20-10
72% 23-9
ATS
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
72% 23-9
TTL
44% 14-18
41% 13-19
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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