Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Badgers @ Golden Gophers WIS @ MINN

WISCONSIN

BADGERSWIS

11-5  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Williams Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

10-6  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
0%
BADGERS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Minnesota)
BadgersWIS (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Badgers Cover

5.5%

Golden Gophers Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MINN -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

WIS By 1-7 points

4.0%

WIS By 8-14 points

0.8%

MINN By 1-7 points

13.7%

MINN By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WISCONSIN
85
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
65
WISCONSIN
72
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Gophers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Golden Gophers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 MINN @ WIS 63 - 67
Jan 13, 2026 WIS @ MINN 78 - 75
Mar 5, 2025 WIS @ MINN 74 - 67
Jan 10, 2025 MINN @ WIS 59 - 80
Jan 23, 2024 WIS @ MINN 61 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +60.6% more
Minnesota: 8.0 vs Wisconsin: 5.0
Assists (L5) +35.3% more
Minnesota: 19.6 vs Wisconsin: 14.5
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Minnesota: 10.9 vs Wisconsin: 9.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Wisconsin: 74.8% vs Minnesota: 69.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 69.0 78
MINN Score 85.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 33.8 28.0 / 42.0
Assists 19.6 / 14.5 20.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.6 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 46.8 52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 74.8 67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 34.3 27.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.0 / 5.0 3.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 9.9 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
MINN
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1% Total +/-: +3.5
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
WIS
MINN
WIS
ML
48% 16-17
60% 21-14
71% 22-9
69% 24-11
ATS
55% 18-15
51% 18-17
71% 22-9
69% 24-11
TTL
52% 17-16
57% 20-15
100% 31-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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