VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
14-2 | Road
79
LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
12-4 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Louisville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)
UVA By 1-7 points
16.9%
UVA By 8-14 points
6.8%
LOU By 1-7 points
26.8%
LOU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
42
VIRGINIA
Louisville
48
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
Virginia
54
VIRGINIA
Louisville
62
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 90.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
UVA @ LOU
79 - 70
Jan 18, 2025
UVA @ LOU
67 - 81
Jan 4, 2025
LOU @ UVA
70 - 50
Jan 27, 2024
UVA @ LOU
69 - 52
Jan 3, 2024
LOU @ UVA
53 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.8% more
Louisville: 12.8
vs
Virginia: 11.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Louisville: 78.0%
vs
Virginia: 72.4%
Blocks (L5)
+45.8% more
Virginia: 6.4
vs
Louisville: 3.5
Assists (L5)
+21.6% more
Virginia: 18.3
vs
Louisville: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
42.0
79
LOU Score
48.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 32.0
26.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.3 / 18.3
13.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.5 / 6.4
2.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 47.3
36.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 72.4
67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 40.7
36.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.1 / 5.2
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 11.1
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
LOU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
LOU
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
UVA
LOU
UVA
ML
63%
22-13
67%
24-12
71%
24-10
72%
26-10
ATS
71%
25-10
75%
27-9
71%
24-10
72%
26-10
TTL
63%
22-13
53%
19-17
100%
34-0
100%
36-0
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