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MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

14-2  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

10-6  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
0%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
HURRICANES --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Miami)
HurricanesMIA (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

78.8%

Fighting Irish Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-7 points

25.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

26.2%

ND By 1-7 points

13.7%

ND By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
93
MIAMI
85
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
70
MIAMI
75
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hurricanes (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 MIA @ ND 81 - 69
Feb 1, 2025 ND @ MIA 57 - 63
Jan 24, 2024 MIA @ ND 73 - 61
Dec 2, 2023 ND @ MIA 49 - 62
Dec 30, 2022 MIA @ ND 76 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +71.3% more
Miami: 8.5 vs Notre Dame: 2.5
Assists (L5) +40.4% more
Miami: 17.1 vs Notre Dame: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
Miami: 51.3% vs Notre Dame: 41.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Miami: 70.2% vs Notre Dame: 66.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 93.0 81
ND Score 85.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 31.6 30.0 / 27.0
Assists 10.2 / 17.1 7.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 51.3 47.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 66.2 / 70.2 67.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 37.2 35.0 / 28.0
Steals 2.5 / 8.5 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.4 18.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
MIA
ND
MIA
ML
65% 20-11
63% 22-13
77% 24-7
64% 21-12
ATS
55% 17-14
63% 22-13
77% 24-7
64% 21-12
TTL
68% 21-10
63% 22-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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