FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
7-9 | Road
86
SYRACUSE
ORANGESYR
11-5 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
0%
ORANGE
100%
SEMINOLES
--
ORANGE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
FSU By 1-7 points
4.0%
FSU By 8-14 points
12.2%
SYR By 1-7 points
0.6%
SYR By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida State
96
FLORIDA STATE
Syracuse
72
SYRACUSE
Simulated Score
Florida State
68
FLORIDA STATE
Syracuse
73
SYRACUSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Seminoles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orange
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Seminoles (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Orange (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
FSU @ SYR
86 - 94
Mar 11, 2025
SYR @ FSU
66 - 62
Jan 4, 2025
SYR @ FSU
74 - 90
Jan 23, 2024
FSU @ SYR
85 - 69
Feb 8, 2023
SYR @ FSU
76 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.6% more
Florida State: 6.9
vs
Syracuse: 5.6
Blocks (L5)
+85.6% more
Syracuse: 5.4
vs
Florida State: 2.9
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Syracuse: 34.9
vs
Florida State: 31.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Syracuse: 38.0%
vs
Florida State: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FSU Score
96.0
86
SYR Score
72.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 31.4
41.0 / 37.0
Assists
13.4 / 12.8
22.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.9
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 42.7
60.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 68.8
60.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 31.0
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.6 / 6.9
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 12.1
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
SYR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
SYR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
FSU
SYR
FSU
ML
78%
25-7
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
59%
19-13
ATS
69%
22-10
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
59%
19-13
TTL
66%
21-11
48%
16-17
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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