Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson Tide @ Bulldogs ALA @ MSST

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

11-5  |  Road

97
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 9:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

10-6  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
CRIMSON TIDE --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Mississippi State)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

21.2%

Bulldogs Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

ALA By 1-7 points

13.7%

ALA By 8-14 points

4.8%

MSST By 1-7 points

25.3%

MSST By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
81
ALABAMA
89
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
75
ALABAMA
82
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u171.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u171.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 MSST @ ALA 75 - 100
Jan 13, 2026 ALA @ MSST 97 - 82
Feb 25, 2025 MSST @ ALA 73 - 111
Jan 29, 2025 ALA @ MSST 88 - 84
Feb 3, 2024 MSST @ ALA 67 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.9% more
Mississippi State: 11.9 vs Alabama: 9.3
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Mississippi State: 6.6 vs Alabama: 5.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Mississippi State: 46.3% vs Alabama: 43.0%
Blocks (L5) +18.3% more
Alabama: 5.8 vs Mississippi State: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 81.0 97
MSST Score 89.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.9 / 34.7 32.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.5 / 15.3 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.8 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 43.0 37.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 74.2 68.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 42.5 43.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.5 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 9.3 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ALA
MSST
ALA
ML
66% 21-11
63% 22-13
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
ATS
56% 18-14
60% 21-14
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
TTL
59% 19-13
63% 22-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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