Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Pacers BOS @ IND

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

24-14  |  Road

96
FINAL
Mon, Jan 12 • 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

8-31  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
CELTICS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

98.6%

Pacers Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

5.8%

BOS By 8-14 points

15.3%

IND By 1-7 points

1.1%

IND By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
118
BOSTON
96
INDIANA
Simulated Score
114
BOSTON
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 IND @ BOS 104 - 119
Jan 12, 2026 BOS @ IND 96 - 98
Dec 26, 2025 BOS @ IND 140 - 122
Dec 22, 2025 IND @ BOS 95 - 103
Dec 29, 2024 IND @ BOS 123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +18.4% more
Boston: 5.3 vs Indiana: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Boston: 48.0 vs Indiana: 43.4
Steals (L5) +85.8% more
Indiana: 9.9 vs Boston: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +57.0% more
Indiana: 16.5 vs Boston: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 118.0 96
IND Score 96.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 40.6 43.0 / 26.0
Assists 31.5 / 23.2 29.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 46.4 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 82.6 / 78.4 67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 48.0 40.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.9 / 5.3 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 10.5 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
BOS
IND
BOS
ML
48% 47-50
57% 61-46
54% 45-38
53% 47-41
ATS
59% 57-40
59% 61-43-3
54% 45-38
53% 47-41
TTL
54% 52-45
56% 60-47
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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