Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nets @ Mavericks BKN @ DAL

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

11-25  |  Road

105
FINAL
Mon, Jan 12 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

14-25  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
NETS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
NETS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
198.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Dallas)
NetsBKN (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nets Cover

27.4%

Mavericks Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

BKN By 1-7 points

16.9%

BKN By 8-14 points

6.8%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
96
BROOKLYN
102
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
BROOKLYN
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u219.5 Win
Proj Total: 198.0
D
Sim u219.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 DAL @ BKN 123 - 114
Jan 12, 2026 BKN @ DAL 105 - 113
Dec 12, 2025 BKN @ DAL 111 - 119
Mar 31, 2025 BKN @ DAL 113 - 109
Mar 24, 2025 DAL @ BKN 120 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
Dallas: 16.2 vs Brooklyn: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.2% more
Dallas: 45.7 vs Brooklyn: 40.7
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Dallas: 47.0% vs Brooklyn: 42.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Dallas: 73.7% vs Brooklyn: 70.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BKN Score 96.0 105
DAL Score 102.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 34.9 44.0 / 24.0
Assists 25.3 / 24.8 28.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.5 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 42.6 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 70.3 75.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 45.7 / 40.7 37.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.1 / 10.6 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 13.2 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BKN Advantage
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BKN
DAL
BKN
ML
62% 63-39
53% 50-45
54% 44-37
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 68-34
52% 48-44-3
54% 44-37
59% 48-34
TTL
59% 60-41-1
57% 54-41
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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