NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
8-8 | Road
68
MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
13-3 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
COWBOYS
100%
COLONELS
--
COWBOYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MCN +12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)
NICH By 1-7 points
20.1%
NICH By 8-14 points
27.2%
MCN By 1-7 points
8.0%
MCN By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Nicholls
75
NICHOLLS
McNeese
63
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
Nicholls
71
NICHOLLS
McNeese
76
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cowboys
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cowboys (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
D
Sim
Cowboys (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
MCN @ NICH
75 - 65
Jan 12, 2026
NICH @ MCN
68 - 94
Feb 1, 2025
MCN @ NICH
63 - 71
Jan 11, 2025
NICH @ MCN
71 - 80
Mar 13, 2024
NICH @ MCN
76 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.0% more
Nicholls: 16.1
vs
McNeese: 12.9
Turnovers (L5)
+12.8% more
Nicholls: 10.4
vs
McNeese: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Nicholls: 38.6%
vs
McNeese: 31.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Nicholls: 48.0%
vs
McNeese: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NICH Score
75.0
68
MCN Score
63.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 38.6
48.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.9 / 16.1
18.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.2
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.0
52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 66.4
86.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 28.8
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.7 / 9.3
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 10.4
11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
MCN
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
MCN
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
NICH
MCN
NICH
ML
67%
22-11
53%
17-15
88%
28-4
68%
19-9
ATS
76%
25-8
47%
15-17
88%
28-4
68%
19-9
TTL
42%
14-19
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
28-0
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